(Please watch this FB video before reading my post, as it is important to demonstrate a bunch of stuff here – the video is a clip of the CMC play when he broke for a long run against us this last season 2023, but it focuses on the WR responsibility on the play)
I was going through my FB thread to clean some things up, which I do often, and I came across this video that I posted back in mid-December. When I watched it at the time, I made the comment about how Spoon got easily baited by Aiyuk to the inside, which caused him to lose contain on the outside of the motion, and that’s what allowed CM to get outside for all those yards. This was to show how young our defense was playing over the year, which is also what PC said just days before he was so utterly wrongly fired, and how the senior guys were having to make up a lot for their (the kids) constant mistakes (and Woolen was even worse this season for some reason).
BUT THIS TIME, I want to say something about DK and continue with more information to gain some understanding on. I also put some math together and absolutely shows with near 100% perfect accuracy, that’s DK is THEE reason why we lose games, and that blaming all the other things you only see while being hyped up watching games on TV, is, well…just not cool.
So, if you watch this video from the perspective of SF, then it’s extremely well played through and through in the play and EVERYONE on the team play does their job perfectly to spring CM for all those yards (you might even remember this play when it happened). This kind of teamwork is how to get to the Super Bowl, folks. And to be perfect, the video focuses on a WR doing HIS JOB on this play, and it’s important to note that it’s a RUNNING play. This isn’t just blocking, it’s not that simple. Everything that Aiyuk does on this play from snap to whistle is 100% planned to how HE should operate on this extremely well-designed play.
Most people, I get it, probably think that WRs aren’t really involved on run plays, but they actually have a very crucial responsibility just, well, like everyone else on this play. This great run by CM didn’t just happen on accident, nor JUST because he’s an exceptional RB…this was a TEAM play, as are, truly, all of SF’s plays…okay?
Now, on DK……..errrr, *sigh* THIS guy! *smdh*
A couple days ago I mentioned that I’ve been watching a few 2023 games but of the “All 22” Coaches film, so you can see, from a very wide angle, all 22 players on the play. It’s basically what you’re seeing in THIS video above of CM, from whoever created it.
I played WR in high school and played DK’s position. DK has always been very raw with proper technique, etc, which I’ve shown in older posts, but right now I want to highlight how bad he is for the whole team, and even on the run game. When you watch the All 22 film, whenever we run the ball, DK basically just stands there and watches the play on every snap…it grinds the ever lovin sh!t out of me (my skin is crawling literally right now)…honestly, if we, in high school, ever just stood there and became spectators on plays, we’d be running laps or 100s (actually, I went to Stadium and we had those stairs to run lol) …so, you think what I’m telling you only applies to high school, come on…this guy’s a pro and he’s acting like a 5 year old playing Pop Warner getting distracted by the squirrels rather than doing his job.
PLEASE watch this kind of game film (the coaching film) whenever you get a chance (I watch them on NFL +, but I pay for the premium package and for what you get, it’s totally worth it if you’re a serious football fan). There’ll be some moments when a running play comes his (DK) way that he’ll run out and get all aggro on his guy, but that’s not even good blocking, in fact, it’s often a penalty if it’s called, and those kinds of things you usually DO see in regular game films.
Next, let’s get back to his awful Completion %, which is the KEY factor in judging receivers, because each missed target is a lost opportunity for keeping a drive sustained. And if your drives stall often, then you obviously can’t score as much, PLUS, your DEFENSE in on the field too much during a game and that gets them tired in games, and injured in seasons…so, all those tackles that Wagner racked up, well, that’s not actually a good thing because it shows how much the defense in on the field over the season. And all those injuries to Jamal Adams that everyone seems to blame him for…well, that’s because the offense can’t sustain drives and forces him on the field too much…which, again, falls on DK and his far-too-many lost opportunities.
And, keep in mind, I’m not just talking about drops. Lots of receivers drop balls and his drop rate was not great this last season but it did improve over the last two, so what I’m talking about is when the ball gets thrown to him and it isn’t caught by him. So it could be an INT, or an errant ball, or any reason it doesn’t get caught, but also, yes, including drops as well. The problem with DK is that he’s so insanely sloppy in his routes, which if you look at any modern NFL offense (that is winning games), the WR routes are absolutely critical to the QB’s timing and in getting passes out there on ropes for receivers to catch and then, hope for those crucial YAC yards after the catch. These are the yards in the passing game that wins games and eventually championships. Easily, 90%, as an off-the-cuff estimate, of Geno’s (or Lock’s) “errant” passes are actually because the Receivers weren’t running routes properly. Let alone probably at least half of his INTs were directly because DK and his team-killing lack of discipline. You have to understand that the football field in high school is the same size as one in college and the pros (not the CFL though), so as a high school WR, we ran the exact same type of routes that pros run, by and large, so these kinds of things sorta jump out at me when I watch games probably a little more than most people, or even, I’m sure, guys who played, or even coached Football, but actually didn’t play WR, dig?
There were a few times last year that JSN was off route, but he’s a rookie and was new to the offense so you sorta expect it. In fact, those balls to him from Lock in that game he came in for Geno, and he went 0-3 (I think) with an INT…well, to me it looked like JSN wasn’t running the route properly, so I give Lock some room on those passes, and he did well in the Philly game obviously, so that makes sense to me. In any case, DK as a 5 year pro and starter, doesn’t have any excuse to be this bad anymore, so this is why I’m dropping this stuff on him here in year 5.
Okay, here’s the data on this season’s games alone. I wasn’t feeling well earlier when I calculated this so anyone is welcome to check my math in these games for sure. This is DK completion percentage for each game he played in in 2023…and to be specific, this is catches divided by targets, and the data came from ESPN NFL Stats and player profiles.
What I wanted to do is to compare the games we WON vs the games we LOST in 2023 as a demonstration of how his completion % affects the whole team and whether we win or lose games.
…and, man, check this out….it’s REALLY glaring.
Wins: ARI – 17%, TEN – 67%, PHI – 83%, WAS – 58%, CLE – 36%, NYG – 75%, CAR – 75% DET – 100%
TOTAL: 63.9%
Losses: PIT – 62%, SF – 40%, DAL – 75%, SF – 33%, LAR – 55%, BAL – 25%, CIN – 44%, LAR – 60%
TOTAL: 49.3%
I’ll just give ya’ll a second here to take that in…
Now, look, if you can’t see this data and KNOW that DK is causing us to lose games, then you definitely need some help in the head lol
IT’S THAT OBVIOUS!!!
Folks, let’s just make this as clear as it can be….that is a 15% DIFFERENCE!!!
IT’S A REALLY BFD!!!
I want to be clear about his numbers even when we WON these games, because 64% is actually still pretty bad too, and the best receivers (that’s ANYONE who is targeted on a pass, regardless of position, so it could be a WR, a RB, a TE, even a QB, or a OL who was made eligible on that play) in the league have numbers in the low 70’s (such as Tyler) and the VERY BEST can touch 80, especially in this day and age of the league. BUT, 64%, given the rest of our team’s play, allowed us to win in the NFL, and this is when these margins for victory are always so freakin tight!
So….IT’S A REALLY BFD!!!
So, think about it….even in that lousy win-game-comp.-% of 64% (it should be much higher with a good receiver), the 15% difference with DK and whether we win or lose games…man, what if THOSE lost opportunities, instead, went to someone else???
…you digging what I’m laying down here, folks?
THIS is EXACTLY WHY his TOTALS don’t matter! …actually, they do matter but not in a good way, in fact, the fact that his totals are so high only demonstrates how STUPID it is to KEEP WASTING OPPORTUNITIES in throwing the effing ball to him that much!!
Those are CHAMPIONSHIP opportunities, folks!!
…or Championship LOST opportunities
And Jody Allen and John Schneider want to fire Pete Carroll *sigh*….well, okay…but just know it’s because he has stuck with DK all these seasons when he would absolutely know how much he’s (DK) hurting the team by this point.
So, I’ve said this before…it makes no sense to lose games by giving DK all those opportunities…so, honestly, by mid season I started to think that ol wily Pete Carroll was basically just padding DK’s stats up (his totals) to get TV attention on him, which then pumps up his TRADE VALUE…and, I mean, it worked, with DK getting in the Pro Bowl, so, we could score something pretty big for this guy in a trade, I think. Certainly not what we got for Russ, but stupid GMs and Head Coaches certainly ARE out there, obviously.
By the way, it’s fun to look at the Dallas game, and this is one of the games I went back to watch the coaches’ film on, but he had really good comp rate of 75%, which really does suggest, now, in the face of this data, that we SHOULD HAVE won that game if not for those ridiculous calls by the refs, and how that then set the tone for our defense and how it played (mostly badly) for the rest of the year…but that’s a bigger discussion for another time because it involves far more factors to consider for sure.
And, look, I’ll make this point as well, of course with all the coaching changes, I mean, MAYBE they can fix DK, who knows, or at least use him in such a way that maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. I’ve been saying for a while now that he should be lining up as a Z inside WR (flanker or up-back), or even in the backfield, similar to how Deebo is used in SF (Deebo’s lifetime Comp % is only 66% and that offense is obviously one of the most dominant the league with the way they use him). DK can (as one of his strengths) absolutely catch those slants and crossers, and his bulk could be used to destroy and wear down defenses on the inside, similar to how Marshawn did as a RB….seriously, just think of that one for a second…mind blown, right? And, the best part now is that we’ve got BOBO who can run at the X WR (split end), and we all know what kind of promise that guy holds in our offense, in fact, Grubb specifically dropped his name in his press conference, so that’s looking like it’s already going to happen (finally). If we can put DK in motion LOTS AND LOTS and give him that added advantage of momentum pre-snap to combine with his mass then he’d pretty much be unstoppable (this is what lots of teams are doing with their gadget guys these days, and it’s one of the reasons why Deebo was able to smash us around on multiple plays).
What we KNOW is that DK really can’t be trusted on Go routes or, say, deep Posts, he’s just not that guy, unfortunately, even with his speed. Because of the physics involved, these deep out passes are just so hard to complete, and they’re even harder if you have a big muscle-headed dummy way down there, off route, trying to catch them. You’d have to keep him closer to the center point, who is the guy throwing the ball, to keep that rope (radius) as tight as possible for him, to give him less of a chance to screw something up.
Anyway, we’ll have to wait and see, I guess, but there is some excitement in that prospect now at least.
The next sets of data that I’ll try to put together, and might just add to this post, will be to compare it to Tyler and/or JSN, and then to compare this season with maybe one of the seasons from Russ.
We can basically exclude any difference between Lock and Geno because Lock started both the Philly game, where DK’s comp rate was 83% (again, another win), and the last SF game and his rate was only 40%. And those would be a wash in comparison to any of Geno’s numbers because only two (full) games for Lock really isn’t enough of a sample size to compare with (you’d really need at least 3 games at a bare minimum so the data can check itself…by the way, this “rule of threes” thumb rule in statistics is also what I used to judge Geno’s game in that season when Russ was injured, and used it as a standard for how well he was going to play as a full time starter, in which he ended up playing great, just as the data showed….gotta love Science, ya’ll *wink wink*).
The other awesome irony, at least in terms of the accuracy of the data from last season, is that because we went 9-8, AND because DK missed the first Arizona game (which was a team win) because of injury, it’s perfectly even to compare both the losses and wins! That’s insane from a statistical perspective, nothing in nature is ever that perfect lol. Maybe I should also do last year’s (2022) for the same reason!
Okay, I’m friggin done for now with this and exhausted myself, but this was not just fun to do, it was obviously very revealing as well.
End.